The conservation of biological diversity has become one of the most important goals of managing forests in an ecologically sustainable way. In this thesis, I report a comprehensive study designed to examine the long-term effects of commercial logging and high-intensity fire, and the ability of Population Viability Analysis (PVA) models to predict these effects to aid in the conservation and management of multiple species. Initially, I compared the abundance of small mammals (A. agilis, R. fuscipes, A. swainsonii), and lizards (L. delicata, L. guichenoti, E. heatwolei), in sites with different disturbance histories: 18-19 yearold logging regrowth, 28-29 or 33-34 year???old clearfelling regrowth and unlogged forest. All sites had previously been burnt by bushfires. No evidence of long-term effects of logging or fire was found for A. agilis, R. fuscipes, L. delicata or L. guichenoti, and there were not enough data to make conclusions for A. swainsonii and E. heatwolei. Then the effects of a hazard-reduction burn were investigated. There was variation between the species in the effects of the burn, with interactions between year, aspect and burning for A. agilis and R. fuscipes, and interactions between year, disturbance and topography for the Lampropholis species. A. swainsonii became extremely scarce in the forest after the burn and E. heatwolei were generally unaffected. Next, PVA metapopulation models were used to predict the likely abundance and patch occupancy of these species based on historical data. Retrospective testing showed the models were accurate for all species, but best for A. agilis and R. fuscipes. Lastly, PVA modelling was used to rank management options; no management action, a hazard-reduction burn in 2005 or a logging event in 2005. The models predicted that future management is likely to result in the extinction of A. agilis, R. fuscipes and L. guichenoti by 2010. However, no one management scenario was most detrimental to all species. The current management regime for this forest involves commercial logging on a 40-year cycle and regular hazard-reduction burning. PVA modelling predicts that A. swainsonii and L. delicata are at the greatest risk of extinction under this regime, but that it is also likely to lead to the extinction of A. agilis, R. fuscipes and L. guichenoti in the near future. The results of this research indicate that the conservation of multiple species under one management regime is unlikely to be successful.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ADTP/258805 |
| Date | January 2005 |
| Creators | Penn, Angela Mary, School of Biological, Earth & Environmental Sciences, UNSW |
| Publisher | Awarded by:University of New South Wales. School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences |
| Source Sets | Australiasian Digital Theses Program |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Rights | Copyright Angela Mary Penn, http://unsworks.unsw.edu.au/copyright |
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