A cointegration analysis on a triangle of high frequency exchange rates is presented. Market efficiency requires the triangle to be cointegrated and the cointegration term to be a martingale difference sequence. We find empirical evidence against market efficiency for very short time horizons: The cointegration term does not behave like a martingale difference sequence. In an out-of-sample forecasting study the cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model is found to be superior to the naive martingale. Finally, a simple trading strategy shows that the VAR also has a significant forecast value in economic terms even after accounting for transaction costs. (author's abstract) / Series: Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science"
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:VIENNA/oai:epub.wu-wien.ac.at:epub-wu-01_1b1 |
| Date | January 1999 |
| Creators | Trapletti, Adrian, Geyer, Alois, Leisch, Friedrich |
| Publisher | SFB Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business |
| Source Sets | Wirtschaftsuniversität Wien |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Paper, NonPeerReviewed |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Relation | http://epub.wu.ac.at/1346/ |
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