The last five years have shown us the profound impact that SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had on human kind and made us aware of the dangers that emerging pathogens can present. The goal of this dissertation is to use mathematical models in connection with data to uncover mechanistic interactions governing viral infections.
To acquire a holistic understanding of the impact of viral infections, it is necessary to develop mathematical techniques and models that bridge knowledge on multiple biological scales. This dissertation explores the relationship between within-host virus dynamics, the environment and the between-host viral transmission. We will validate the models against data from SARS-CoV-2 infections, and data from infections with an emerging pathogen, the Usutu virus.
Our models of SARS-CoV-2 infection looked at the relationship between infectious virus and viral RNA in the body and in the environment. Using golden hamster data and within-host mathematical models, we determined that infectious virus shedding early in infection correlates with transmission events, shedding of infectious virus diminishes late in the infection, and high viral RNA levels late in the infection are a poor indicator of transmission. We further showed that viral infectiousness increases in a density dependent manner with viral RNA and that their relative ratio is time-dependent. Such information is useful for designing interventions.
Our models of Usutu virus infection looked at differences between different virus strains during bird infections. Within-host models applied to data showed heterogeneity in viral strain dynamics, and correlated high basic reproductive number with short infected cell lifespan (indicative of immune responses) and correlated low basic reproductive number with low viral peaks and longer lasting viremia (due to lower infection rates and high infected cell lifespan). We expanded the models to investigate multiscale dynamics connecting within-host scale, bird-to-vector transmission scale, and vector-borne epidemiological scale.
One important direction of this dissertation is the investigation of uncertainty in parameter estimation and overall model identifiability. We conducted identifiability studies (using several theoretical tools) in the multiscale models of Usutu virus infection and in several within-host influenza models. Model identifiability is critical to the reproducibility of modeling results in any biological systems. In this dissertation, we will show how insights from such analyses inform both modeling practices and experimental design. / Doctor of Philosophy / The last five years have shown us the profound impact that SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has had on human kind and made us aware of the dangers that emerging pathogens can present. Within-host mathematical models are tools that can be used to study the dynamics of virus infections. These models help us gain an understanding of biological quantities of interest, relationships between biological processes in a quantitative and qualitative ways, and disease outcome. However, to acquire a holistic understanding of the impact of viral infections, it is necessary to develop mathematical tools and models that bridge knowledge on multiple biological scales. This dissertation explores the relationship between virus infection characteristics over time in a single host and larger biological scales including virus' release into the environment and spread of virus between hosts. Biological and public health insights about SARS-CoV-2 and Usutu virus were gained through these modeling efforts.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:VTETD/oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/118596 |
| Date | 12 April 2024 |
| Creators | Heitzman-Breen, Nora Grace |
| Contributors | Mathematics, Ciupe, Mihaela Stanca, Tuncer, Necibe, Childs, Lauren Maressa, Saucedo, Omar, Duggal, Nisha K. |
| Publisher | Virginia Tech |
| Source Sets | Virginia Tech Theses and Dissertation |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Dissertation |
| Format | ETD, application/pdf |
| Rights | In Copyright, http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
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