Fog and smoke can combine to form dangerous zero visibility conditions along roadways throughout the state of Florida. The ability to forecast when and where fog will occur is
problematic. Fog can occur over large and small scales, and is dependent on many meteorological and geographic variables. This study used Automated Weather Observation Stations (AWOS) and
Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) throughout the state of Florida to develop a climatology to ascertain what conditions are necessary for radiation fog development. Forecasted
dewpoint depression, wind speed, cooling rates, the derived vertical hydrolapse, and other variables were shown to all affect fog formation. Using this information, a fog forecasting model
was developed. The model was used to determine a three-hour binary forecast for the early morning hours, every day, at the location of the mesonet stations used. The model would predict fog
if meteorological conditions preceding the forecasting time met a series of threshold levels. The goal was to make the model easy to deploy so that law enforcement can make a fast decision of
whether to warn the public about potentially dangerous road conditions. The model was compared to other forecasting techniques such as the Model Output Statistics (MOS) fog product and
climatology. After comparing the model to reference forecasts, it was found that the model outperformed climatology by a significant margin and was able to detect more fog events than MOS.
However, the model had a higher false alarm rate and lower percent forecasts correct compared to MOS . / A Thesis submitted to the Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of
Science. / Summer Semester, 2014. / July 17, 2014. / Includes bibliographical references. / Peter Ray, Professor Directing Thesis; Jeffrey Chagnon, Committee Member; Robert Hart, Committee Member.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:fsu.edu/oai:fsu.digital.flvc.org:fsu_252880 |
| Contributors | Rivard, Justin (authoraut), Ray, Peter S. (professor directing thesis), Chagnon, Jeffrey M. (committee member), Hart, Robert Edward, 1972- (committee member), Florida State University (degree granting institution), College of Arts and Sciences (degree granting college), Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science (degree granting department) |
| Publisher | Florida State University, Florida State University |
| Source Sets | Florida State University |
| Language | English, English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text, text |
| Format | 1 online resource (84 pages), computer, application/pdf |
| Rights | This Item is protected by copyright and/or related rights. You are free to use this Item in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights-holder(s). The copyright in theses and dissertations completed at Florida State University is held by the students who author them. |
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