To what extent can two 'Modes' be found amongst non-state armed groups (NSAGs)? The Modes theory hypotheses that NSAGs are organized into two distinct Modes, either the 'Imagistic' or the 'Doctrinal' Mode, with each Mode characterised by a particular organisational structure and type of resource extraction. Previous preliminary research on this had three limitations: 1) it used a sample of only five groups; 2) "Galton's problem", i.e. non-independence of groups was not taken into account, and 3) the theory of resource extraction was underdeveloped. The present research overcomes each of these limitations. First, can the patterns found in the 5-group case study be replicated with a larger sample? A dataset with 50 NSAGs was constructed, with variables that were derived from the theory and resembling those used for the 5-group case study. Analysis results showed that a few 'Doctrinal' variables were significantly correlated and 'Doctrinal' rituals had a frequency distribution as predicted. Yet, most correlations between all Modes variables were not significant, and analyses did not convincingly show that there were two distinct Modes. Second, to what extent does "Galton's problem" (autocorrelation) play a role amongst NSAGs regarding their Modes properties? Data on relations between armed groups and their geographical locations were added to the sample. Using Moran's I, it appeared that two to four Modes properties were significantly autocorrelated. With geographical region as covariate, analyses were redone. Results remained basically the same as without regional covariate. Third, what is the relationship between Modes and the type of Resource extraction? Resource types were operationalized and Resource type data were added to the sample of NSAGs. A theory on Risk, and a ROI (Return on Investment) and Risk index were developed. Regressions showed no change in ROI or Risk over time. Low ROI did not typically predict Doctrinal-related Modes properties, and high-ROI did not typically predict Imagistic-related Modes properties. The significance of relations between Modes properties and Resource types strongly depended on whether the analysis was a correlation or a regression. Overall, only a few relationships were significant and no consistent pattern emerged. Limitations of the present research, and suggestions for further research are discussed, as well as an overall assessment of the Modes theory.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:bl.uk/oai:ethos.bl.uk:748756 |
| Date | January 2017 |
| Creators | Johannes, Ben |
| Contributors | Johnson, Dominic ; Curry, Tom ; Atkinson, Quentin ; Whitehouse, Harvey |
| Publisher | University of Oxford |
| Source Sets | Ethos UK |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation |
| Source | http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:4c99d9ff-3b7f-4c6b-969f-978138197a78 |
Page generated in 0.0023 seconds