This project analyzes the relationship between military occupations and power vacuums. Specifically, it seeks to understand why some military occupations result in power vacuums while others do not. Pundits and policymakers have written extensively about the possibilities that the end of US occupations might yield dangerous power vacuums. These vacuums would create regional turmoil by inviting hostile actors and causing state failure. Based on these assumptions, many commentators caution against the withdrawal of forces.
But what exactly is fearful about a power vacuum remains unclear. The concept of a power vacuum lacks defined parameters and scope, and why military occupations might lead to power vacuums is unknown. Much of the current analysis derives from familiar and recent cases of occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan. David Edelstein has the most comprehensive work on military occupations, but his work does not directly address the outcome of power vacuums. This project uses a mix multimethod research design to examine which factors cause power vacuums to emerge following occupations. It uses a comprehensive dataset of occupations since 1943. It will begin with a medium-n QCA and then proceed with case studies. The ultimate goal is to identify the conditions likely to lead to power vacuums and develop policy recommendations about how to avoid them.
This project theorizes that a high level of economic destruction inflicted by the occupying military is a necessary condition for the absence of a power vacuum in the occupied territory. Shortened, this project calls this theory total destruction equals total buy-in. High levels of economic destruction inflicted by the occupier pacify the occupied population, while simultaneously delegitimizing the occupied state's previous regime. High economic destruction, which is defined as the decline of a state's per-capita GDP and overall population, is not the sole factor in preventing a power vacuum. Combinations of other conditions help influence the advent or absence of a power vacuum, but economic destruction inflicted by the occupier is the only condition that must be present in order to prevent a power vacuum. / Doctor of Philosophy / This project examines how, when, and why power vacuums emerge at the end of military occupations. Power vacuums evoke fear from pundits and policymakers, as hostile actors can exploit power vacuums to sow instability. Yet there remains no clear definition of what constitutes a power vacuums or substantive research on their etiology and impact. Policy discussions typically look to recent US experience in Iraq and Afghanistan to evaluate how the end of military engagement and occupation can create power vacuums. Thus risk of a power vacuum is often cited as justification to prolong military operations.
To rectify this, this project will complete a replication and extension using David Edelstein's seminal dataset on military occupations. The dataset includes well-known cases such as the Allied occupations of Western Germany and Japan and lesser-known occupations like the Vietnamese occupation of Cambodia. Using a combination of within-case process tracing and Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA), the project seeks to elucidate what combination of conditions generate power vacuums following military occupations.
The theory this project argues is that a high level of economic destruction inflicted by the occupying military is a necessary condition for the absence of a power vacuum in the occupied territory. The crux of this theory is that occupiers that engage in protracted conflict, inflicting widespread damage on a state before occupying it, are more likely to prevent a power vacuum from occurring. This widespread damage creates "breathing space" for the occupier to establish indigenous security forces (ISF) and a friendly government without having to worry about nationalist resistance from the occupied population.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:VTETD/oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/99309 |
| Date | 08 July 2020 |
| Creators | Karle, Joseph Bernard |
| Contributors | Public Administration/Public Affairs, Ahram, Ariel I., Peters, Joel, Datz, Giselle, Karlin, Mara E. |
| Publisher | Virginia Tech |
| Source Sets | Virginia Tech Theses and Dissertation |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Dissertation |
| Format | ETD, application/pdf |
| Rights | In Copyright, http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
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