Probability matching is the tendency to predict outcomes in accordance with their actual contingencies in a binary choice task. It is, however, a suboptimal response if the aim is to maximize correct predictions. I review two theories that attempt to explain why probability matching occurs: the pattern-search hypothesis and dual-systems theory. These theories are tested in two studies which suggest that dual-systems theory provides a better account of probability matching behavior. Studies 3, 4, and 5 then provide evidence for an extension of the dual-systems theory, called expectation matching, which is intended to explain why probability matching is the intuitive response to a binary choice problem.
Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:LACETR/oai:collectionscanada.gc.ca:OWTU.10012/6558 |
Date | January 2012 |
Creators | James, Greta |
Source Sets | Library and Archives Canada ETDs Repository / Centre d'archives des thèses électroniques de Bibliothèque et Archives Canada |
Language | English |
Detected Language | English |
Type | Thesis or Dissertation |
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