This dissertation addresses the challenge of predicting human-induced subsidence in tectonic settings. The study focuses on the non-symmetric and shape-defying nature of subsidence troughs in tectonic regions, which deviates from conventional symmetric models. The aim of the dissertation is to improve the accuracy of subsidence prediction by incorporating horizontal stress effects into empirical methods. Through a combination of numerical investigations and empirical modelling, the research reveals stress-induced patterns in subsidence profiles. The developed model, based on various concepts, successfully incorporates asymmetry and shape deviation, resulting in significantly improved prediction accuracy. Application of the model to a real subsidence case in a salt cavern shows a 30% improvement in prediction (based on mean squared error comparison with classical solution). This new solution covers subsidence profile patterns not previously considered by empirical models.:Inhalt
1 Introduction
2 State of the art
2.1 Subsidence prediction methods
2.1.1 Empirical subsidence prediction method overview
2.1.2 Numerical methods for subsidence prediction
2.2 Subsidence monitoring methods
2.2.1 Observation methods
2.2.2 Interplay and evolution of techniques
2.3 Subsidence anomalies
2.4 In-situ-stress field
2.5 Subsidence prediction methods for anomalies
2.6 Conclusions
3 Goals and objectives
4 Foundations
4.1 Empirical subsidence prediction methods
4.1.1 Convergence
4.1.2 Transmission coefficient
4.1.2 Influence factor
4.2 Numerical models for subsidence case
4.2.1 Grid size for subsidence case
4.2.2 Boundary conditions
4.2.3 Constitutive models
4.3 Validation
4.3.1 Observation methods
4.3.2 Parameter estimation
4.3.3 Global parameter estimation
4.3.4 Local parameter estimation
4.3.5 Quality measures for result valuation and validation
5 Methodology
6 Numerical investigation
6.1 Preliminary investigation
6.1.1 Method
6.1.2 Choice of constitutive model
6.1.3 Model and input data
6.1.4 Preliminary investigation results
6.2 Design of the main experiment: non-uniform stress distribution
6.2.1 Constitutive model and input data
6.2.2 Model simplification
6.2.3 Output data
6.3 Contribution of asymmetrical stress distribution
6.3.1 Discussion of the basic distribution form
6.3.2 Discussion of maximum subsidence
6.3.3 Discussion of assymetry
6.3.4 Discussion of influence angle
6.4 Conclusions
7 Adaptation of an empirical model to the discovered features
7.1 Subsidence asymmetry
7.2 Subsidence shape flexibility
7.3 Unifying solution
7.4 Conclusion and outlook
8 Application to a full scale
8.1 General information for a salt cavern storage field
8.2 Estimation of the observed subsidence surface as reference
8.3 Model implementation
8.3.1 Parameter estimation results
8.4 Statistical validation of models
8.5 Conclusions
9 Conclusion
9.1 Limitations
9.2 Outlook
References
Appendix
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:DRESDEN/oai:qucosa:de:qucosa:88930 |
| Date | 26 January 2024 |
| Creators | Babaryka, Aleksandra |
| Contributors | Benndorf, Jörg, Blachowski, Jan, Technische Universität Bergakademie Freiberg |
| Source Sets | Hochschulschriftenserver (HSSS) der SLUB Dresden |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, doc-type:doctoralThesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis, doc-type:Text |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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