Purpose: The purpose of this study is to examine the bi-directional causality between political uncertainty and the market risk premium in the US. Design/methodology/approach: I use a theoretical model to motivate signs and then check signs based on a vector autoregression. Findings: I find that political uncertainty has a small positive, delayed effect on the market risk premium. The market risk premium, on the other hand, has a large permanent, negative effect on political uncertainty. Originality/value: This is the first research paper to consider the bi-directional effects of political uncertainty on the market risk premium and vice versa. It also finds interesting empirical results.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ETSU/oai:dc.etsu.edu:etsu-works-10577 |
| Date | 01 January 2020 |
| Creators | Gregory, Richard P. |
| Publisher | Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University |
| Source Sets | East Tennessee State University |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Source | ETSU Faculty Works |
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