<p>Prognoze Međuvladinog panela o klimatskim promenama govore da će prostor Jugoistočne Evrope biti pod snažnim uticajem izmenjenih klimatskih uslova u 21. veku. Očekuje se da će leta biti toplija i suvlja sa više ekstremnih događaja i temperaturama koje mogu u proseku porasti i za čak 3,8°C, što predstavlja veliki izazov za šumarstvo. Da bi se odgovorilo na taj izazov neophodno je načiniti i sprovesti adekvatne mere adaptacije, što bi značilo prilagođavanje mera gazdovanja šumama novonastlim ekološkim uslovima. Jedan od značajnih alata u tom prilagođavanju predstavljaju različiti modelarski pristupi. U ovoj disertaciji su upotrebljene najsavremenije metode modeliranja uticaja klimatskih promena na šume. Radi se o pionirskom istraživanje koje je prvo takve vrste u regionu. Dva različita metodska pristupa, vezanih za distribuciju, rast, adaptivno i multifunkcionalno gazdovanja bukovim šumama u Srbiji u klimatskim uslovima 21. veka su uputila na nekoliko najbitnijih rezultata i zaključaka. Izmenjeni klimatski uslovi će imati uticaj na rast i distribuciju bukovih šuma u 21. veku na osnovu simulacija sa 4C modelom i predikcija pomoću Elenbergovog koeficijenta. Na kraju simuliranog perioda 2001-2030 pomoću 4C modela zabeležene su veće zapremine za devet sastojina monodominantnih bukovih šuma u odnosu na referentni period 1961-1990, dok su zapremine na kraju perioda 2071-2100 po pravilu bile veće ili slične referentnom period. Simulacije u period 2001-2030 su proseku imale najveće godišnje priraste i najviše mrtvog drveta, a one u period 1961-1990 najmanje. Najbolje rezultate za vezivanje ugljenika i očuvanje biodiverziteta je pokazao scenario gazdovanja u kojem nije bilo intervencija. Suprotno tome, najviše prinosa drveta je zabeleženo u scenarijima sa najintenzivnijim intervencijama. U adaptivnom multifunkcionalnom gazdovanju bukovim šumama za scenarija preferencija koje su kreirale tri grupe zainteresovanih strana (Uprava za šume, sektor zaštite prirode i JP „Srbijašume“) pokazalo se da gazdovanje koje podrazumeva češće zahvate (pet godina između seča) daje bolje rezultate u odnosu scenarija koji podrazumevaju desetogodišnje intervale. Scenariji gazdovanja u kojima su posečena visoka stabla su pokazale bolje rezultate u multifunkcionalnom gazdovanju u odnosu na scenarija gde su sečena niža stabla u istom zapreminskom odnosu za sva <span style="font-size: 12px;">scenarija preferencija zainteresovanih strana. Elenbergov koeficijent je </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">pokazao dobru prediktivnu sposobnost za određivanje donje granice </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">distribucije bukovih šuma u Srbiji. Do kraja 21. veka okvirno 90% današnjih </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">bukovih šuma će se naći izvan bioklimatske ekološke niše u kojoj su bili u </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">20. veku, dok će se 50% naći u zoni u kojoj je zabeležen njen masovni </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">mortalitet u Mađarskoj. Izračunate granice EQ su bile nešto niže od dobijenih </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">u sličnim studijama u region što implicira striktan regionalni i lokalni pristup </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">problem. Poređenje rezultata simulacija sa 4C modelom i EQ za posmatranih </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">devet sastojina je pokazalo različite trendove vezano za rast (distribuciju) </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">bukovih šuma u Srbiji do kraja 21. veka. 4C model je predvideo poboljšanje </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">uslova, dok je EQ predvideo pogoršanje uslova. Iz tog razloga potrebna su </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">dalja kontinuirana dugoročna istraživanja bukovih šuma kako bi smo dobili </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">pouzdaniju osnovu za procenu budućeg rasprostranjenja, rasta i planiranja </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">gazdovanja ovim šumama u budućnosti.</span></p> / <p>Predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggest that the region of Southeast Europe will be strongly influenced by the altered climate conditions in 21 century. It is expected that the summers will be hotter and drier with more extreme events and temperatures that can rise on average as much as 3.8 °C. That is a big challenge for forestry. To respond to this challenge it is necessary to make and implement appropriate adaptation measures which would mean adapting forest management practice to changed environmental conditions. Different models are one of the important tools which can be used in this purpose. In this dissertation state-of-the art methods for calculating the impact of climate change on forests have been applied. This is a pioneering work and the first of its kind in the region. Two different methodological approaches, related to the distribution, growth, adaptive and multifunctional management of European beech forests in Serbia has been performed and provided following results and conclusions. Changed climatic conditions will have <br />an impact on the growth and distribution of beech forests in 21st century based on simulations with the 4C model and predictions of Ellenberg’s climate quotient (EQ). At the end of the simulated period 2001-2030 higher volumes were recorded for the nine beech stands in comparison to the reference period 1961 to 1990, while the volume at the end of the period 2071-2100 were higher or similar to the reference period. Simulations in the period 2001-2030 have had the greatest average annual increment and the biggest amount of dead wood. The best results for carbon sequestration and biodiversity were provided by management scenario in which there were no management measures. In contrast, the highest yield of timber is recorded in the scenarios with the most intensive management measures. The adaptive multifunctional management of beech forests including three <span style="font-size: 12px;">scenarios of preferences’ (Forest Directorate , Nature Protection Sector and </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">Public Enterprise "Srbijašume" ) suggested that management measures that </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">involved more frequent interventions (five years between felling) gives</span><span style="font-size: 12px;">better results than scenario which include a ten-year periods. Scenarios in </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">which higher trees are cut provide better results than scenario where the </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">lower trees are cut. EQ showed good predictive capability for determining </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">the lower (xeric) limit of the distribution of beech forests in Serbia. By the </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">end of 21st century, approximately 90 % of today's beech forests will be </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">found outside the bioclimatic niches in which they were in the 20th century, </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">while the 50 % of them will be in the zone in which their mass mortality is </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">observed in Hungary. Calculated EQ beech threshold distribution for Serbia </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">were slightly lower than in similar studies in the region (Hungary) , which </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">implies strict regional and local approach to the problem. Comparison of </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">simulated results with the 4C model and EQ for nine stands showed </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">different trends related to growth (distribution) of beech forests in Serbia by </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">the end of 21st century. 4C model predicted improvement of environmental </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">conditions, while the EQ predicted their worsening. For this reason, </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">continuing long-term studies of beech forests are needed in order to get a </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">more reliable basis for estimating future distribution, growth and planning </span><span style="font-size: 12px;">of forest management in the future.</span></p>
Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:uns.ac.rs/oai:CRISUNS:(BISIS)86412 |
Date | 30 June 2014 |
Creators | Stojanović Dejan |
Contributors | Orlović Saša, Milić Dubravka, Radulović Snežana, Matović Bratislav, Rajković Borivoje |
Publisher | Univerzitet u Novom Sadu, Prirodno-matematički fakultet u Novom Sadu, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences at Novi Sad |
Source Sets | University of Novi Sad |
Language | Serbian |
Detected Language | English |
Type | PhD thesis |
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