A computer-based analog model to determine market potential for electric power-driven water pumps in developing countries. The purpose of this study is to develop a computer-based model that predicts the market potential for electric water pumps in developing nations.The logic employed in such an analysis first seeks out countries which at some point in their recent history have exhibited unusually high growth rates in aggregate pump demand during a period of several years. Next, the researcher evaluates the significance of specific social and economic "indicator" variables when matched with raw trade statistics for that country via stepwise regression--a computer assisted procedure. Finally, by isolating the economic and/or social factors that most closely parallel a country's pump demand, one can identify and rank the developing countries offering the greatest potential sales. The systematically chosen highpotential markets are then worthy of individual consideration and additional resource contribution in a given firm's strategic marketing plan.Since reach of the data were locally unavailable, a trip to the Department of Com©erce in Washington, D.C. and the United Nations in New York City was required. Funding to proceed with Part III of this report was solicited from, and granted by, a major domestic producer of electric water pump motors.The results of the research identified eight indicator variables directly correlated to the demand for imported pumps in developing nations. The regression equation composed of these eight variables, then, will be accepted as the best available model for predicting a country's pumpdemand. The regression equation also shows that each of the eight indicator variables contributes to changes in pump demand in different magnitudes.The research has identified forty-four developing nations with significant growth-rates in one or more of the eight indicator variables. Market projections are finally derived by comparing an individual country's indicator variable growth-rate to its historical pump demand growth-rate.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:BSU/oai:cardinalscholar.bsu.edu:handle/182888 |
| Date | January 1984 |
| Creators | Montgomery, Timothy R. |
| Contributors | Brown, Joseph D. |
| Source Sets | Ball State University |
| Detected Language | English |
| Format | 29 leaves : ill. ; 28 cm. |
| Source | Virtual Press |
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