In this thesis, quantitative risk assessment study of several oil field
transportation lines that belong to a private oil production company located in S.
East Turkey has been conducted. In order to achieve this goal, first primary risk
drivers were identified. Then relative ranking of all pipeline segments were
conducted. Quantitative risk assessment was based on Monte Carlo simulations
and a relative scoring index approach. In these simulations frequency of
occurrence of pipeline failures for different oil field pipeline systems was used.
Consequences of failures were also based on historical data gathered from the
same oil fields. Results of corrosion rate calculations in oil and water pipeline
systems were also reported.
iv
Most significant failures are identified as corrosion, third party damage,
mechanical failure, operational failure, weather effect and sabotage. It was
suggested that in order to reduce corrosion rate, thin metal sheets must be inserted
in pipelines. Aluminum sheets (anodes) must be used to reduce corrosion rate in
water pipeline system. The required number of anodes was calculated as 266 for
BE field water pipeline (the life of anode is 1.28 years), 959 for KA water
pipelines system (the life of anode is 3.2 years.) and 992 for KW water pipelines
(the life of anode is approximately 2 years). Furthermore high risk pipeline
segments for further assessment were identified. As a result of Monte Carlo
simulations, the highest risk was observed in return lines followed by flow lines,
water lines and trunk lines. The most risky field was field BE for which the risk
value in trunk lines were the highest followed by flow lines. Field SA was the
second risky region for flow lines and it was followed by KU region. Field KA
was forth-risky. Prioritization of maintenance activities was suggested and areas
of missing or incomplete data were identified.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:METU/oai:etd.lib.metu.edu.tr:http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12605151/index.pdf |
| Date | 01 June 2004 |
| Creators | Ogutcu, Gokcen |
| Contributors | Akin, Serhat Serhat@metu.edu.tr |
| Publisher | METU |
| Source Sets | Middle East Technical Univ. |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | M.S. Thesis |
| Format | text/pdf |
| Rights | To liberate the content for public access |
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