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Do Predictions of Professional Business Economists Conform to the Rational Expectations Hypothesis?: Tests on a Set of Survey Data

A set of forecast survey data is analyzed in this paper for properties consistent with the Rational Expectations Hypothesis. Standard statistical tests for "rational expectations" are employed utilizing consensus forecasts generated by an interest rate newsletter. Four selected variables (Fed Funds rate, M1 rate of growth, rate of change in CPI, and real GNP growth rate) are analyzed over multiple time horizons. Results tend to reject "rational expectations" for most variables and time horizons. Forecasts are more likely to meet "rationality" criteria the shorter the forecast horizon, with the notable exception of forecasts of real GNP growth.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:unt.edu/info:ark/67531/metadc501259
Date08 1900
CreatorsDabbs, Russell Edward
ContributorsSmith, Kenneth Leon, Brocato, Joe M., Molina, David J.
PublisherUniversity of North Texas
Source SetsUniversity of North Texas
LanguageEnglish
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeThesis or Dissertation
Formativ, 110 leaves: ill., Text
RightsPublic, Dabbs, Russell Edward, Copyright, Copyright is held by the author, unless otherwise noted. All rights reserved.

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