In this paper we use model-free estimates of daily exchange rate volatilities employing high-frequency intraday data, known as Realized Volatility, which is then forecasted with ARMA-models and used to produce one-day-ahead Value-at-Risk predictions. The forecasting accuracy of the method is contrasted against the more widely used ARCH-models based on daily squared returns. Our results indicate that the ARCH-models tend to underestimate the Value-at-Risk in foreign exchange markets compared to models using Realized Volatility
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:uu-146571 |
| Date | January 2011 |
| Creators | Fallman, David, Wirf, Jens |
| Publisher | Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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