The aim of this study is to evaluate the risk-return efficiency of credit policies for managing portfolio credit risk of banking institutions. The focus of the empirical analysis is on the impact of risk pricing and problem loan restructuring on bank risk and returns using a simulation model that represents an operating environment of lenders servicing the Australian farm sector. Insurance theory principles and agency relationships between a borrower and a lender are integrated into the portfolio theory framework. The portfolio theory framework is then couched in terms of the capital budgeting approach to generate a portfolio return distribution function for a particular credit policy regime. Borrowers are segmented by region, industry, loan maturity and credit risk class. Each credit risk class defines risk constraints on which a stochastic simulation model may be developed for credit scoring an average borrower in a portfolio segment. The stochastic simulation method is then used to generate loan security returns for a particular credit policy regime through time with loan return outcomes weighted by the number of borrowers in a segment to give measures of portfolio performance. Stochastic dominance efficiency criteria are used to choose between distributions of NPV of bank returns measured for a number of credit policy alternatives. The findings suggest that banks servicing the Australian farm sector will earn more profit without additional portfolio risk if the maximum limit to which pricing accounts for default risk in loan reviews is positively linked to volatility of gross incomes of farm business borrowers. Importantly, credit-underwriting standards must also be formulated so as to procure farm business borrowers of above average productivity with loans that are fully secured using fixed assets. The results of simulations also suggest that restructuring loans in event of borrower default provide for large benefits compared to a �no restructuring� option.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ADTP/215960 |
| Date | January 1999 |
| Creators | Bramma, Keith Michael |
| Publisher | University of Sydney, Department of Agricultural Economics |
| Source Sets | Australiasian Digital Theses Program |
| Language | English, en_AU |
| Detected Language | English |
| Rights | Copyright Bramma, Keith Michael;http://www.library.usyd.edu.au/copyright.html |
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