MSc (Mathematcs) / Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics / Infectious diseases remain a major public health concern. Well-known for causing
sickness and death, enormous pain and suffering, increased time spent on patient
care and huge economic losses due to lost production. Infectious diseases continue
to be a scourge without equal. In this work, we address the following research question:
Can we use a multiscale model of HIV/AIDS transmission dynamics to assess
the comparative effectiveness of health interventions that are implemented at different
scale domains? To achieve the set objectives of the study, we use multiscale modelling
approach, a new and emerging computational high-throughput technique
for mathematically studying problems that have many characteristics across several
scales. To be more specific, we perform three tasks in addressing the research
question. First, we develop a within-host submodel and use it to show it’s associated
limitations which only a multiscale model can resolve. Second, we develop
a between-host submodel and use it to motivate the need for multiscale modelling
of the HIV/AIDS disease system. Finally, we link the two submodels to produce a
nested HIV/AIDS multiscale model that affords us the opportunity to compare effectiveness
of five preventive and treatment HIV/AIDS health interventions. Analysis
of the multiscale model shows that it is possible to jointly study two key aspects
(immunology and epidemiology) of infectious diseases. The multiscale model
provides the means for making meaningful comparative effectiveness on available
preventive and treatment health interventions. Consequently, we employ the multiscale
model to show that impact of HIV/AIDS packages increases as more interventions
are integrated into the packages. Specifically, the study shows that combined
HAART and male circumcision is more effective than an intervention involving
HAART alone. Overall, our study successfully illustrates the utility of multiscale
modelling methodology as a tool for assessing the comparative effectiveness
of HIV/AIDS preventive and treatment interventions. For purposes of informing
public health policy, we use the study results to infer that condom use, male circumcision
and pre-exposure prophylaxis are more effective in controlling the transmission
dynamics of HIV/AIDS at the start of the epidemic as compared to when the
disease is endemic in the community while the converse is also true for HAART. / NRF
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:netd.ac.za/oai:union.ndltd.org:univen/oai:univendspace.univen.ac.za:11602/1256 |
| Date | 21 September 2018 |
| Creators | Mafunda, Martin Canaan |
| Contributors | Garira, W., Moyo, S. |
| Source Sets | South African National ETD Portal |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Dissertation |
| Format | 1 online resource (xiv, 131 leaves) |
| Rights | University of Venda |
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