<p>Budući da rezultati u budućnosti, zavise od odluka u sadašnjosti, ispitivanje uticaja sistematskih grešaka u logici odlučivanja je od velikog značaja. Predmet ovog rada je merenje rizika usled uticaja subjektivnih faktora u procesu procena i donošenja odluka u uslovima neizvesnosti. U dokazivanju hipoteza korišćene su metode klasične i fazi logike. Rezultati istraživanja pokazuju da se kod većine učesnika u proceni indeksa na finansijskim tržištima zemalja u razvoju, uočava uticaj ličnih sklonosti prema preteranom otpimizmu / pesimizmu i preteranom samopouzdanju. Na osnovu rezultata istraživanja predložen je holistički model i alat za buduće procene, koji uzima u obzir koeficijent samopouzdanja kao korektivni faktor u postupku donošenja odluke. Primena modela i alata kao podrška u odlučivanju je moguća kod svih vrsta evaluacija projekata u inženjerskom odlučivanju.</p> / <p>Results in the future depend on decisions in the present. Therefore examination of sistematic errors in logic decision making has high importance. The main objective of this work is risk quantification due to subjective influence in process of evaluation and decison making under uncertainty. The methods which are used are based on classical and fuzzy logic. The research results show that bias toward over opptimism / pessimism and overconfidence in emerging markets stock exchange exist in majority cases. Based on the results of the research are suggested holistic model and tools for future assessment, which take into an account overconfidence coefficient as corective factor in decison making process. The model and tools is possible to use as decision making support for all types of evaluation projects in the engeneering decisions.</p>
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:uns.ac.rs/oai:CRISUNS:(BISIS)101465 |
| Date | 27 September 2016 |
| Creators | Sando Snežana |
| Contributors | Dobromirov Dušan, Anišić Zoran, Milosavljević Peđa, Marić Branislav, Radišić Mladen |
| Publisher | Univerzitet u Novom Sadu, Fakultet tehničkih nauka u Novom Sadu, University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Technical Sciences at Novi Sad |
| Source Sets | University of Novi Sad |
| Language | Serbian |
| Detected Language | Unknown |
| Type | PhD thesis |
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