This study provides a comparative evaluation of the effectiveness of survival rate and time-series regression techniques used for estimating state and substate net migration across the years 1960-1980. Estimates from these techniques are compared to a theoretically exact benchmark series of actual net migration calculated from the vital statistics method. / Florida and New York and their state economic areas underwent substantial and divergent population change during the time period of this study. The state of Florida was one of the fastest growing large states in the nation, but some of the state economic areas grew very slowly during this time. The state of New York lost population; some state economic areas lost population the entire time, but other areas increased in population size. These divergent patterns provided a rigorous test of the two techniques compared. / Survival rate and time-series regression estimates of net migration are compared to the benchmark by these divergent areas of population change. There were no statistically significant differences between the survival rate estimates and the benchmark series for any state economic areas, with the exception of the areas in New York which underwent stable (<5%) population growth. Nonparametric tests showed differences in patterns of the signs between these series for the loss areas of New York as well. The New York state level survival rate estimates were also substantially different from the benchmark series. Inaccuracy in the survival rate estimates may be due to the impact of migration on the age structure of the areas. / Regression models were developed specifically for state economic areas, by population change areas. The final models reflected the economic and demographic characteristics of the areas. However, regression estimates of 1980 net migration compared to the benchmark fared poorly at all geographic levels, with the exception of the state of New York. / It is concluded that geographic level of analysis does play a role in research results, partially explaining past inconsistencies in the literature. The regression results are further discussed in terms of the properties of the models and the functional forms of both the regression equation and the independent variables. The survival rate results are also discussed in terms of the statistical properties of the model. / Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 47-12, Section: A, page: 4516. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--The Florida State University, 1986.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:fsu.edu/oai:fsu.digital.flvc.org:fsu_75972 |
| Contributors | HAZLETT, LESLEI STREET., Florida State University |
| Source Sets | Florida State University |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Text |
| Format | 176 p. |
| Rights | On campus use only. |
| Relation | Dissertation Abstracts International |
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