Invasive species are a growing issue that will compound under climate change. Rising temperatures, fluctuating precipitation and new transportation pathways will create new opportunities for invasive establishment. A direct and impactful consequence of climate change is the removal of climatic barriers to invasive survival. Species distribution modeling (SDM) for invasives must include an evaluation of future establishment potential so that managers can prioritize regions forecasted as high risk under climate change. Climatic SDMs effectively support pan-invasion risk assessments by forecasting potential invaded areas globally where climatic barriers have shifted the potential for establishment. Rarely is regional-scale climate variation considered in invasive SDMs, despite its relevance for pests that establish outside their native regional climate. Here, I apply a climatic pest risk framework to the Spotted Lanternfly grape pest (Lycorma delicatula, SLF). I assess how climate change shifts the establishment potential of SLF across important viticultural regions worldwide. I contrast an ensemble of three regional-scale SDMs to a global-scale SDM, which provided multiple predictions on how future regional climate variation might shift national SLF risk levels, impacting the global wine market. I found that the global suitable area for SLF will increase under climate change, with range expansion outpacing contractions by about 1.1 million km2. Expansions will primarily occur at present northern range edges in Europe, North America, and East Asia, and contractions will occur across the southern hemisphere. Next, 307 global viticultural regions (29% of 1,063 total sampled) will decrease in risk for SLF establishment and only 532 (50% of 1,063) will remain at any risk under climate change. Loss in SLF establishment risk under climate change followed a latitudinal gradient in the northern hemisphere. Meanwhile, only 85 known SLF populations (11% of 769 rarefied sample) will destabilize under climate change. Populations within the US and South Korean invaded ranges will remain stable with respect to climate. Our regional-scale ensemble emphasized the importance of mean winter temperature as a constraint on SLF establishment, with activity dropping sharply at -3°C. This method for regional-scale ensemble modeling should be utilized in similar invasive or climate change SDM applications to make more refined SDM predictions and to reduce uncertainty. Viticulturalists can and should use our provided tools and model framework to understand the risk of SLF establishment at their locality as climate change removes barriers to this pest’s establishment globally. / Biology
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TEMPLE/oai:scholarshare.temple.edu:20.500.12613/10671 |
| Date | 06 1900 |
| Creators | Owens, Samuel, 0009-0001-2338-7928 |
| Contributors | Helmus, Matthew R., Cordes, Erik E. |
| Publisher | Temple University. Libraries |
| Source Sets | Temple University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis/Dissertation, Text |
| Format | 126 pages |
| Rights | IN COPYRIGHT- This Rights Statement can be used for an Item that is in copyright. Using this statement implies that the organization making this Item available has determined that the Item is in copyright and either is the rights-holder, has obtained permission from the rights-holder(s) to make their Work(s) available, or makes the Item available under an exception or limitation to copyright (including Fair Use) that entitles it to make the Item available., http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
| Relation | http://dx.doi.org/10.34944/dspace/10633, Theses and Dissertations |
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