Economic input-output (I-O) and watershed models provide useful results but when seeking to integrate these systems, the structural, spatial, and temporal differences between these models must be carefully considered. To reconcile these differences, a hydrologic-economic modeling framework is designed to couple an economic model with a watershed model. A physically constrained, I-O model, RCOT, is used to represent the economic system in this framework because it provides sectoral detail for a regional economy and calculates physical resource quantities used by these sectors. Uniquely, it also allows for technology options for all sectors and minimizes the resource use based on environmental constraints imposed by the watershed, which adds complexity to the representation of the economic system and its interactions with the watershed system. To represent the watershed system in this framework, the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) is used. An HSPF model has been calibrated to represent the hydrological processes of Cedar Run Watershed by the Occoquan Watershed Monitoring Laboratory (OWML). Thus, the capabilities of this framework are demonstrated using strategic scenarios developed to examine future development patterns that may occur within Fauquier County, northern Virginia, and its local basin, Cedar Run Watershed. The scenarios evaluate both the downstream and seasonal impacts on water flow and nitrogen concentration within the watershed, and the changes made within the economic system in response to these impacts. For these scenarios, the most efficient solution is the one that minimizes the use of resource inputs within the economic sectors, including developed land, water withdrawn, and applied nitrogen, which in turn inform watershed health. The scenario results demonstrate that this coupled hydrologic-economic modeling framework can overcome the spatial differences of the individual models and can capture the interactions between watershed and economic systems at a temporal resolution that expands the types of questions one can address beyond those that can be analyzed using these models separately. / Doctor of Philosophy / Water is an essential commodity for human survival, a necessary resource for many industries, and a crucial indicator of environmental health. Rising human populations have created stress on the natural supply of water resources while corresponding economic activities have contributed to the deterioration in water quality. Therefore, it is essential to identify pathways for addressing water use and contamination while also supporting economic progress to achieve sustainable development.
The region of study is Fauquier County, located in northern Virginia, USA. This county has a long association with agricultural production, but it has been experiencing development pressure due to its proximity to Washington DC (50 km southwest). Within Fauquier County lies Cedar Run Watershed (498 km2), a sub-basin of Occoquan Watershed (1,515 km2). Occoquan Watershed drains into the Occoquan Reservoir, which is a drinking water source for close to two million residents in northern Virginia.
The motivation of this research is to design a coupled modeling framework that allows insight to be gained into the interactions that occur between watershed and economic systems. This framework is then used to evaluate how changes in economic activities will cause changes in water use and contamination levels within Cedar Run Watershed and vice versa. By designing strategic scenarios to provide implications about future development patterns that may occur in the region, changes can be anticipated, and conclusions can be reached.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:VTETD/oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/109763 |
| Date | 28 April 2022 |
| Creators | Amaya, Maria Teresa |
| Contributors | Civil and Environmental Engineering, Little, John C., Duchin, Faye, Hester, Erich Todd, Lim, Theodore C. |
| Publisher | Virginia Tech |
| Source Sets | Virginia Tech Theses and Dissertation |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Dissertation |
| Format | ETD, application/pdf |
| Rights | In Copyright, http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
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