As global temperatures rise due to anthropogenic climate change, water resources, thus economies, are threatened. A geologically recent period of increased temperatures is the mid-Holocene and an investigation of its climate may allow for a better understanding of future precipitation and changes to regional water resources. The regions of interest are tropical Northern Central America and subtropical North America with Belize and Florida representing each climate zone. By reconstructing mid-Holocene climate in Florida and Belize, I hope to provide a better understanding of how increased temperatures and a reduced latitudinal temperature gradient impacts both precipitation patterns and variability. Today, drivers of changes in precipitation include climate systems such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Therefore, it is imperative to determine their latitudinal influences during the mid-Holocene and consequently their potential impact on water resources in the near future.
Speleothems from Chen Ha Cave, Vaca Plateau, Belize and Brown's Cave, West Central Florida, provided high-resolution (sub-annual to decadal) oxygen and carbon stable isotope data that allowed for a detailed investigation of mid-Holocene climate. The speleothems were sampled along the growth axis of a cross-section for oxygen and carbon isotopic analysis. 234U-230Th dating was used to create a chronology for each record and determine the time step between each isotope sample. Time series analysis with variations of Fourier transforms, including Lomb-Scargle, wavelet analysis, and multi-taper method, was used to extract periodicities for each oxygen isotope record. To determine which atmospheric-oceanic modes influenced mid-Holocene precipitation, the speleothem periodicities were compared to those of known periodicities of atmospheric-oceanic modes, such as the AMV and NAO. Finally, the Florida and Belize records were assessed for coherency using cross wavelet analysis.
The Floridian speleothem recorded less precipitation compared to present levels due to a westward expansion and intensification of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) with a quasi-persistent but less influential AMV. Relative to today, the mid-Holocene in Belize was slightly wetter which I suggest is a result of a more northerly ITCZ and an intensification of the NASH that increased the strength of the Caribbean Lower Level Jet (CLLJ). The Seuss solar cycle was also significant in Belize, contributing 7.2% of the precipitation variability. Wavelet coherency assessment reveal very little connectivity between the Florida and Belize speleothem reconstructions, potentially due to the blocking influence of the ITCZ. Comparison to other records from the mid-Holocene supports the hypothesis of an intensified NASH and more northerly ITCZ.
A future increase in precipitation in Belize may lead to increased soil erosion, the need for crop adaptation, and risk to the population of low lying areas, such as Belize City. In Florida, reduced precipitation may result in a decrease in agricultural output and threats to the state's freshwater supply.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:USF/oai:scholarcommons.usf.edu:etd-6750 |
| Date | 09 April 2015 |
| Creators | Pollock, Anna L. |
| Publisher | Scholar Commons |
| Source Sets | University of South Flordia |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | Graduate Theses and Dissertations |
| Rights | default |
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