The diploma thesis "Estimation of the election results by respondents and its usage" discuss the methods of predicting the election results based on election expectations of individuals and shows how people form their expectations and how exact these expectations are. First short summary of existing methods of election results predictions and its limitations is presented - it also deals with pre-election surveys and its ambitions to predict the election results. The rest of the thesis focuses only on the prediction of the election results based on election expectations of individuals: prediction markets and aggregated estimations of respondents. Concept Wisdom of Crowds, from which both approaches originate, is presented together with concrete examples of application of the predictions based on opinions of prediction markets participants and respondents of the pre-election surveys. Results of the foreign studies confirm that the prediction markets predict the election results very well and with higher accuracy than the pre-election surveys. Current studies also positively evaluate the estimation of the election results done by respondents. Respondents are usually able to predict the election results, even several weeks before the elections. Last part of the thesis is based on my own quantitative...
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:nusl.cz/oai:invenio.nusl.cz:336448 |
| Date | January 2015 |
| Creators | Červinková, Monika |
| Contributors | Tuček, Milan, Hendl, Jan |
| Source Sets | Czech ETDs |
| Language | Czech |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
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