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Forecasting Reurns to Pure Factors: A Study of Time Varying Risk Premia

I find evidence of predictability in out-of-sample data for four risk premia using simple econometric models. Two factor return models are used, an APT model and the Wilshire Atlas. I demonstrate that investors can exploit conditioning information to manage their exposures to risk factors. The results suggest that the investment opportunities set changes in a large and an economically significant way. I show that the growth rate in money supply and trend in stock market valuations are the main drivers respectfully of the risk premia associated with the Book-to-Market and Size factors from the Wilshire model. The predictability results are mixed with respect to Business Cycle Theory. At times investors price business cycle risk while at other times they exhibit herding tendencies.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:GEORGIA/oai:digitalarchive.gsu.edu:finance_diss-1003
Date28 April 2006
CreatorsFamy, George
PublisherDigital Archive @ GSU
Source SetsGeorgia State University
Detected LanguageEnglish
Typetext
Formatapplication/pdf
SourceFinance Dissertations

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