Yes / As the EU and UK negotiate a new relationship, this paper explores the welfare implications of this policy change and
its interaction with major trade policy initiatives. We evaluate five Brexit scenarios, based on different assumptions
regarding Brexit, TTIP and various free trade deals the UK may attempt to broker with the US or Commonwealth
countries. We also consider the dynamics of welfare changes over a period of two decades. Our estimates suggest
that the impact of Brexit is negative in all policy scenarios, with lower welfare losses under a soft Brexit scenario. The
losses are exacerbated if TTIP comes into force, demonstrating the benefits of being a member of a large trade bloc.
However, they occur gradually and can be partially compensated by signing new free trade agreements. To further
minimise losses, the UK should avoid a hard Brexit.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:BRADFORD/oai:bradscholars.brad.ac.uk:10454/16301 |
| Date | 05 October 2018 |
| Creators | Jackson, Karen, Shepotylo, Oleksandr |
| Source Sets | Bradford Scholars |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Article, Accepted manuscript |
| Rights | © 2018 Elsevier B.V. Reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. |
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