Urbanization in coastal areas of the United States is increasing as simultaneously the East and Gulf coasts of the United States face increasing threats from climate change from hurricanes and storm surge inundation. This study will evaluate urban growth using a cellular automata model to analyze the trends in urbanization between 1996 and 2019 and predict how it will continue until 2050. The study uses historical trends in land use and urbanization, as well as spatial and environmental data, to evaluate the likelihood of urban growth in two modeled scenarios: one that accounts for flood risk and one that does not. The study evaluates trends over the entire coastal buffer area, including the 150-kilometers adjacent to the East and Gulf coasts as well as targeted areas of New Orleans, Louisiana and Houston, Texas to determine growth at the scale of a metropolitan area. Both the scenarios have an overall prediction accuracy of 93% in determining the projected land use of a cell on the gridded map; however, the two models have different strengths. The scenario excluding storm surge impacts better predicts urban growth across the entire study area categorically, while the scenario accounting for the suitability of growth in areas at risk of storm surge inundation is more reliable in showing the specific areas urban growth occurred. The comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of the models will help determine if urbanization and population shifts are impacted by threats of storm surge and hurricanes in the study area. The outcome of the model analysis can be used to influence how communities burdened by climate change can strategically grow to limit the impacts of flooding on their residents and infrastructure. / Master of Science / The flood impacts of hurricanes regularly impact the coastline of the United States, however populations in the same coastal areas are continuing to grow. This study models how cities are growing along East and Gulf coasts and the factors influencing that growth. The concern with increasing urban areas in coastal areas is that these areas are also being affected by climate change, which can cause flooding and other dangerous conditions. These flood events are a risk to human lives and the built environment of the communities. This study uses a computer model to analyze how these cities are growing using historic data from 1996 to 2019 and how they will continue to grow through 2050. The model considers factors like the risk of flooding, as well as information about the land and environment in these areas. This study used this information to identify how cities are growing and determine if there is a need to better account for flooding risks and other problems caused by climate change as growth continues. The work looked at two different scenarios, one that accounts for flood risk and one that allows growth without concern for flood risk, to see which one more closely models historic growth. This study will help communities along the coast make smart decisions about how to grow and adapt to the challenges of climate change.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:VTETD/oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/115456 |
| Date | 16 June 2023 |
| Creators | Naurath, Rebecca Cassie |
| Contributors | Civil and Environmental Engineering, Irish, Jennifer L., Paretti, Marie C., Shao, Yang |
| Publisher | Virginia Tech |
| Source Sets | Virginia Tech Theses and Dissertation |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | ETD, application/pdf |
| Rights | In Copyright, http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/ |
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