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A Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches

Yes / Amid much recent interest we discuss a Variance Gamma model for Rugby Union matches
(applications to other sports are possible). Our model emerges as a special case of the recently
introduced Gamma Difference distribution though there is a rich history of applied work using
the Variance Gamma distribution – particularly in finance. Restricting to this special case
adds analytical tractability and computational ease. Our three-dimensional model extends
classical two-dimensional Poisson models for soccer. Analytical results are obtained for match
outcomes, total score and the awarding of bonus points. Model calibration is demonstrated
using historical results, bookmakers’ data and tournament simulations.

Identiferoai:union.ndltd.org:BRADFORD/oai:bradscholars.brad.ac.uk:10454/17767
Date02 April 2020
CreatorsFry, John, Smart, O., Serbera, J-P., Klar, B.
Source SetsBradford Scholars
LanguageEnglish
Detected LanguageEnglish
TypeArticle, Accepted manuscript
Rights(c) 2021 BE Press. Full-text reproduced in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy.

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