Dust forecasting has become important to military operations over the past three decades. Rules of thumb have been the primary resource for forecasting dust. In recent years, algorithms for weather models have been created to produce atmospheric dust concentration forecasts and are now coming into use operationally. The question becomes how good are the models and what causes errors in their forecasts? This study examines the accuracy of the U. S. Navy's Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Mesoscale Model dust module during the United Arab Emirates Unified Aerosol Experiment. The study also attempts to determine what causes any error if present. The primary method to verify the model's aerial coverage accuracy is through equitable threat score. Case studies are then conducted to verify the scores and identify sources of any errors identified. Results indicate the model performs well with respect to sourcing dust plumes. Errors in modeled aerial coverage as compared to real world observations appear to be the result of an inability for the model to properly advect suspended dust near the surface layer. Unconfirmed dust plumes in the model seemed to be the result of inaccurate surface characteristics.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:nps.edu/oai:calhoun.nps.edu:10945/2249 |
| Date | 03 1900 |
| Creators | Sokol, Darren D. |
| Contributors | Nuss, Wendell A., Wash, Carlyle H., Naval Postgraduate School (U.S.)., Department of Meteorology |
| Publisher | Monterey California. Naval Postgraduate School |
| Source Sets | Naval Postgraduate School |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Format | xiv, 49 p. : col. ill. ;, application/pdf |
| Rights | Approved for public release, distribution unlimited |
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