The 2018 Swedish general election saw the largest collective polling error so far in the twenty-first century. As in most other advanced democracies Swedish pollsters have faced extensive challenges in the form of declining response rates. To deal with this problem a new method based on search query data is proposed. This thesis predicts the Swedish general election using Google Trends data by introducing three models based on the assumption, that during the pre-election period actual voters of one party are searching for that party on Google. The results indicate that a model that exploits information about searches close to the election is in general a good predictor. However, I argue that this has more to do with the underlying weight this model is based on and little to do with Google Trends data. However, more analysis needs to be done before any direct conclusion, about the use of search query data in election prediction, can be drawn.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:UPSALLA1/oai:DiVA.org:uu-412889 |
| Date | January 2020 |
| Creators | Sjövill, Rasmus |
| Publisher | Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen |
| Source Sets | DiVA Archive at Upsalla University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Student thesis, info:eu-repo/semantics/bachelorThesis, text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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