Warming over the past century has been greatest in high-latitudes over land and a number of environmental indicators suggest that the Arctic climate system is in the process of a major transition. Given the magnitude of observed and projected changes in the Arctic, it is essential that a better understanding of the characteristics of the Arctic climate system be achieved. In this work, I report on modifications to the UVic Earth System Climate model to allow it to represent regions of perennially-frozen ground, or permafrost. I examine the model’s representation of the Arctic climate during the 20th Century and show that it capably represents the distribution and thermal state of permafrost in the present-day climate system. I use Representative Concentration Pathways to examine a range of possible future permafrost states to the year 2500. A suite of sensitivity experiments is used to better understand controls on permafrost. I demonstrate the potential for radical environmental changes in the Arctic over the 21st Century including continued warming, enhanced precipitation and a reduction of between 29 and 54 % of the present-day permafrost area by 2100. Model projections show that widespread loss of high-latitude wetlands may accompany the loss of near surface permafrost. / Graduate
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:uvic.ca/oai:dspace.library.uvic.ca:1828/4030 |
| Date | 21 June 2012 |
| Creators | Avis, Christopher Alexander |
| Contributors | Weaver, Andrew J. |
| Source Sets | University of Victoria |
| Language | English, English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis |
| Rights | Available to the World Wide Web |
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