Changes in the electric power industry have brought great challenges and uncertainties in transmission planning area. More effective planning of transmission grids with the appropriate development of advanced planning technologies is badly-needed. The aim of this research is to develop an advanced probabilistic transmission expansion planning (TEP) methodology in a continually changing market environment. The methodology should be able to strengthen and increase the robustness of existing transmission network. By using the proposed probabilistic TEP methodology, it can reduce the risks of major outages and identify weak buses in the system. The significance of this research is shown by its comprehensiveness and powerful practicability. Results from this research are able to improve the planning efficiency and reliability with consideration of financial risks in an electricity market. In order to achieve the target, this research methodologies focused on two main important issues, (1) probability based technical assessment and (2) financial investment evaluation. During the first stage study, probabilistic congestion management, probabilistic reliability evaluation and probabilistic load flow for TEP under uncertainties have been investigated and improved. The developed methodologies and indices, which truly represent the composite impact from both critical state and probability, have linked with financial terms. At financial investment evaluation part, Monte Carlo market simulation is performed to assist economic analysis. The overall planning process has been treated as a constrained multi-objective optimisation task. Comprehensive investigations are conducted on several test systems and testified by real power systems using the available reliability data and economic information from the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). Overall, this research developed probabilistic transmission planning methodologies that can reflect modern market structures more accurately and it enable a greater utilization of current generation and transmission resources to increase potential operation efficiencies.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ADTP/254265 |
| Creators | Miao Lu |
| Source Sets | Australiasian Digital Theses Program |
| Detected Language | English |
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