Background: The most recent estimate for the number of Australians living with chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is 150,000, with over one million ever having been infected. One in four people with chronic infection will die as a result. Worldwide, the burden of chronic HBV infection is great. As many as 400 million people are chronically infected, and the World Health Organisation estimates that as a result HBV infection is the tenth leading cause of death. / Aim: The aim of the research presented in this thesis is to improve the accuracy and relevance of our understanding of the epidemiology and control of HBV infection in Australia, through the development of new methodological approaches to the collection and analysis of relevant epidemiological data. / Methods: Three novel approaches were adopted. First, a serosurvey of a randomised, age-structured convenience sample of over 3200 specimens was performed spanning the period from 1995 to 2005 to estimate the prevalence of markers of infection with, and immunity to HBV. Secondly, a comparative analysis of the serosurvey results with national surveillance notifications since 1971 and migration records since 1945 was undertaken. Finally, a complex deterministic mathematical model of HBV infection in Australia was constructed simulating the entire population between 1951 and 2050. / Results: The serosurvey indicates that chronic infection with HBV is more common in the Victorian population than existing national serosurvey estimates suggest, and the coverage of immunisation programs (particularly of adolescents) is far from universal. Significant geographic, age, and gender disparities in the prevalence of chronic HBV infection were identified in the serosurvey, which appear in part to relate to historical migration patterns and which could be used to develop a targeted and effective public health response. The comparative analysis of the serosurvey results with notifications and migration data demonstrates coherence of these disparate sources of information, and suggest that knowledge of migration patterns can lead to robust predictions of future notifications. The novel regression model developed implies that at least 50,000 people with chronic HBV infection are undiagnosed. The mathematical model of HBV infection in the Australian population is unique in many respects, and has been validated against external data to provide reassurance regarding the accuracy of the simulated outcomes. Some of these outcomes include an estimated 160,000 Australians living with chronic HBV infection in 2009, increasing by several thousand people every year, and that less than 5 per cent of chronic infections entering the population are able to be addressed by domestic vaccination or other prevention programs. / Conclusion: The new insights into the epidemiology of HBV infection in Australia provided by the approaches described all suggest a large and increasing burden of chronic HBV infection. New approaches are needed to provide essential policy outcomes to assist and empower Australians living with chronic HBV infection. If this does not occur, the economic and human costs to our community are likely to become great.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ADTP/269944 |
| Date | January 2009 |
| Creators | Cowie, Benjamin Campbell |
| Source Sets | Australiasian Digital Theses Program |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
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