This research work studies the problem of identifying and predicting the trends of a single financial target variable in a multivariate setting. The machine learning point of view on this problem is presented in chapter I. The efficient market hypothesis, which stands in contradiction with the objective of trend prediction, is first recalled. The different schools of thought in market analysis, which disagree to some extent with the efficient market hypothesis, are reviewed as well. The tenets of the fundamental analysis, the technical analysis and the quantitative analysis are made explicit. We particularly focus on the use of machine learning techniques for computing predictions on time-series. The challenges of dealing with dependent and/or non-stationary features while avoiding the usual traps of overfitting and data snooping are emphasized. Extensions of the classical statistical learning framework, particularly transfer learning, are presented. The main contribution of this chapter is the introduction of a research methodology for developing trend predictive numerical models. It is based on an experimentation protocol, which is made of four interdependent modules. The first module, entitled Data Observation and Modeling Choices, is a preliminary module devoted to the statement of very general modeling choices, hypotheses and objectives. The second module, Database Construction, turns the target and explanatory variables into features and labels in order to train trend predictive numerical models. The purpose of the third module, entitled Model Construction, is the construction of trend predictive numerical models. The fourth and last module, entitled Backtesting and Numerical Results, evaluates the accuracy of the trend predictive numerical models over a "significant" test set via two generic backtesting plans. The first plan computes recognition rates of upward and downward trends. The second plan designs trading rules using predictions made over the test set. Each trading rule yields a profit and loss account (P&L), which is the cumulated earned money over time. These backtesting plans are additionally completed by interpretation functionalities, which help to analyze the decision mechanism of the numerical models. These functionalities can be measures of feature prediction ability and measures of model and prediction reliability. They decisively contribute to formulating better data hypotheses and enhancing the time-series representation, database and model construction procedures. This is made explicit in chapter IV. Numerical models, aiming at predicting the trends of the target variables introduced in chapter II, are indeed computed for the model construction methods described in chapter III and thoroughly backtested. The switch from one model construction approach to another is particularly motivated. The dramatic influence of the choice of parameters - at each step of the experimentation protocol - on the formulation of conclusion statements is also highlighted. The RNN procedure, which does not require any parameter tuning, has thus been used to reliably study the efficient market hypothesis. New research directions for designing trend predictive models are finally discussed.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CCSD/oai:tel.archives-ouvertes.fr:tel-00749717 |
| Date | 05 June 2012 |
| Creators | Mahler, Nicolas |
| Publisher | École normale supérieure de Cachan - ENS Cachan |
| Source Sets | CCSD theses-EN-ligne, France |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | PhD thesis |
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