By means of the experimental oral double auction markets, this
thesis shows that the Hayek hypothesis might not be valid when
uncertainty is introduced into the markets. More precisely ,
our experimental results evidence that the efficiency loss
increases as the degree of uncertainty increases. Furthermore,
as our convergence analyses suggests, the flat sup of the
efficiency and the flat inf of the P-Q norm in Experiment 1,
the experiment without uncertainty, seems to reflect the market
behavior characterized by rational expectations or rational
learning. On the other hand, the decreasing sup of the
efficiency and the increasing inf of the P-Q norm in
Experiment 2, the experiment with uncertainty, seems to reflect
the market behaviour characterized by bounded rationality or
animal spirits. Therefore, a phase transition from rational
expectations to animal spirits might be parameterized by the
degree of uncertainty. These findings have important
implications for the current controversy on bounded rationality
in macroeconomics. They also reflect the limitation of using
the method of certainty equivalence in treating uncertainty
when the market is regarded as parallel distributed processors
rather than a central unit processor.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/B2002004225 |
| Creators | 郭振雄, Kuo, Jenn Shyong |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 英文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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