內政部消防署「104年消防白皮書」統計2005年至2014年建築物火災中，以獨立住宅火災最多，工廠火災次之，但工廠火災所造成的損失及使用消防人力、消防車輛數，卻超乎一般建築物甚多，也造成了許多警消及民眾之傷亡，因此有必要將其獨立於建築物火災之外，進行相關之資料分析與研討。
新北市轄區幅員廣闊，以人口數或工廠家數，都是全台灣最多，具有主要交通、消費市場及生產製造多重角色，且各行政區因歷史、環境或文化等因素，嚴然為另一個台灣縮影，與其他縣市相比也較具代表性，因此本研究使用2009至2015年新北市追蹤資料來作迴歸分析，探討消防概念因素(例如:工廠消防檢查次數等4項)、人口及區域概念因素(例如:大學以上教育人口比例等6項)與工廠火災指標【例如:火災發生件數、人員傷(亡)數量、火災件數/列管工廠數量比】關係。
在實證結果內，並扣除掉部分因素可能有內生性影響後，顯示「消防專用蓄水池」、「工廠消防檢查次數」及「老化指數」【(65歲以上年底人口數／0-14歲年底人口數)x100為代表】3項，有影響工廠火災指標。其中消防專用蓄水池與此地區有無發生工廠火災呈負相關，但與老化指數呈正相關。其次發現，消防安檢次數與工廠火災件數呈負相關。最後，工廠火災件數與工廠數量比，和老化指數呈正相關。 / According to the yearly fire report in Taiwan, factory fire has accounted for the highest proportion, and also cause lots of people and firefighters’ casualties. Therefore, it is necessary to separate factory fire from normal building fire cases, and use related data to analyze and discuss independently. New taipei city has a large territory, which including the largest population and highest number of factories in Taiwan, therefore, this study applied New Taipei city panel data from 2009 to 2015 to perform regression analysis,and explore the influence of concept fire factors, population, and conceptual regional factors on the index of factory fire.
According to the research, after deducting the suspected endogenous problems, the result shows that fire water reservoir, factory fire safety inspection, and aging index 【(population age number of 65 years above / number of 0-14 years old )X100 】will have influence on factory fire index. Fire water reservoir have an inversely relationship with factory fire within the area, however, the aging index is proportional to factory fire. Second, the increasing number of fire safety inspection will reduce factory fire. finally , the number of factory fire is proportional to the number of factory and aging index.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0104921043 |
| Creators | 林晏辰, Lin, Yen Chen |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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