由於死亡率曲線與殖利率曲線同樣可用水平(level)、斜率(slope) 、曲度(curvature)來描述，且兩者之參數皆為受到時間因素影響之動態因子，故本研究應用Nelson-Siegel(1987)系列之動態利率期間結構模型，如Diebold and Li (2006)的三因子模型，針對日本1947至2006年死亡率進行配適，再以自我相關模型檢視因子的趨勢變化進而預測；結果發現本研究所使用模型在配適死亡率曲線上效果良好，而高齡人口死亡率預測上較幼年、青少年人口精確，以日本資料而言Svensson四因子模型相較於Lee-Carter模型預測能力佳，但在年輕人口死亡率中則不然。 / The main purpose of this study is tempting to extend existing model in interest model context to mortality modeling. Since the mortality curve has resemblance of interest rate yield curve. Both of them can be describe by level, slope, and curvature terms. Also, the parameters of two curves are the function of time. We apply the Nelson and Siegel family yield rate models such like Diebold and Li (2006) model to fit and forecast the mortality term structure. By using the Japanese mortality data within 1947 to 2006, we find out that the fitting of these models are precise, especially when age dimension being truncated to age 20-103. The forecasting performances comparing with the benchmark Lee-Cater model is better in elder age but worse in younger age.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G0963580161 |
| Creators | 謝牧庭 |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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