本篇論文主要在外匯市場建立市場投資組合、利差交易投資組合與動能交易投資組合，探討透過不同情境適當改變投資組合比重配置，是否能夠顯著提升交易策略的報酬表現。
以1999年1月至2015年10月為樣本期間，根據28個國家外匯市場資料建構市場投資組合、利差交易投資組合與動能交易投資組合等，之後根據三種投資組合報酬情況透過馬可夫情境轉換模型區分成三種情境。按三種情境的各種投資組合超額報酬表現，再利用馬可維茲的平均數-變異數投資組合模型配置各情境下各項交易的比重，再依據計算出的預期情境與相對應比重進行投資。其結果顯示在樣本期間內，本篇論文的交易策略相較於外匯市場投資組合、利差交易投資組合與動能交易組合有較佳的投資表現。
在樣本外測試部分，採用自2012年中開始的連續情境二資料進行分析。報酬方面，在其他交易型態呈現負報酬較多情況下，就本文交易策略而言，投資者隨時根據其各種交易平均報酬與共變異數進行交易比重配置，適時放空交易策略或投資無風險資產，產生正報酬。但從標準差可以推斷投資者面對未來的不確定，在整個樣本外期間歷時的34個月當中標準差亦無法有效降低，說明了投資者面對下一期總體環境的高不確定性。 / In this thesis, we mainly investigate whether it could improve the performance of currency portfolio by adjusting weights among carry trade, momentum and market return in foreign exchange market under different kinds of regimes.
Based on a sample of 28 market currencies, we form three kinds of transactions in our portfolio, including carry trade, momentum, and market return. Under Markov switching model, we divide the sample period into three regimes, and then determine weights among carry trade, momentum and market return by parameters of each re-gime using Markowitz mean-variance analysis. Finally, we invest different weights among three transactions according to each expected regime. We find the result that although the return of the strategy is just a little higher than the carry trade, the risk is much lower compared to other transactions.
In our out-of-sample testing, we analyze the performance by using the data of the regime two which begins September, 2012. With the respect to the return, most of other risky transactions have negative return, but we get positive return by adjusting the long position and short position according to the result of the mean-variance anal-ysis. However, we can not effectively reduce risk by using the strategy, and in the meantime it can explain the high uncertainty investors face toward the next period.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/G1033520071 |
| Creators | 歐哲源, Ou, Che Yuan |
| Publisher | 國立政治大學 |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Language | 中文 |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
Page generated in 0.0024 seconds