This thesis examines how we store probabilities, how remembered probabilities affect decisions, and how memory for probability judgments determined by a single event interacts with implicit probability judgments formed by exposure to repeated events. The first experiment deployed a novel paradigm in the form of a card game to examine how memory for stochastic events influences choice following intervening decision tasks. The second experiment investigated memory for the context of game trials. The third experiment modified an existing memory research paradigm in order to examine the ability to remember probabilistic information following a single presentation of an event with a visible sample space. Increasing retention interval has a significant, systematic, and degrading effect on optimal choices based on judgments of relative probability, but reinforcement is somewhat more robust. However, memory for simple probabilities derived from events with clearly presented sample spaces is more accurate. Implications and future research are discussed.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:CHENGCHI/U0001506501 |
| Creators | Barch, Daniel H., Jr. |
| Publisher | Tufts University. |
| Source Sets | National Chengchi University Libraries |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Rights | Copyright © nccu library on behalf of the copyright holders |
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