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Previous issue date: 2014-03-10 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior / The Pitimbu River Watershed (PRW), belonging to Potiguar capital
metropolitan area, State of Rio Grande do Norte, contributes, among other purposes,
to human using and animal watering. This watershed is extremely important
because, besides filling up with freshwater approximately 30% of the south part of
Natal (South, East and West Zones), contributes to the river shore ecosystem
equilibrium. Face to the current conjuncture, this study aims to evaluate the urban
development dynamics in the PRW, applying Cellular Automata as a modeling
instrument, and to simulate future urban scenarios, between 2014 and 2033, using
the simulation program SLEUTH. In the calibration phase, urban spots for 1 984,
1992, 2004 and 2013 years were used, with resolution from 100 meters. After the
simulation, it was found a predominance of organic growth, expanding the BHRP
from existing urban centers. The spontaneous growth occurred through the fullest
extent of the watershed, however the probability of effective growth should not
exceed 21%. It was observed that, there was a 68% increase for the period between
2014 and 2033, corresponding to an expansion area of 1,778 ha. For 2033, the
source of Pitimbu River area and the Jiqui Lake surroundings will increase more than
78%. Finally, it was seen an exogenous urban growth tendency in the watershed
(outside-in). As a result of this growth, hydraulics resources will become scarcer / A Bacia Hidrogr?fica do Rio Pitimbu (BHRP), pertencente ? regi?o
metropolitana da capital Potiguar, Estado do Rio Grande do Norte (RN), contribui,
entre outros fins, para o consumo humano e dessedenta??o animal. Essa bacia ? de
suma import?ncia, pois al?m de abastecer com ?gua doce aproximadamente 30%
da popula??o da parte sul de Natal (zonas sul, leste e oeste), contribui para o
equil?brio do ecossistema ao longo do rio. Diante da conjuntura atual, os objetivos
deste estudo foram avaliar a din?mica do desenvolvimento urbano na BHRP,
aplicando Aut?matos Celulares como instrumento de modelagem, e simular cen?rios
urbanos futuros, entre 2014 e 2033, empregando o programa de simula??o
SLEUTH. Na fase de calibra??o, foram utilizadas as manchas urbanas para os anos
de 1984, 1992, 2004 e 2013, com resolu??o 100 metros. Ap?s a simula??o,
verificou-se que houve uma predomin?ncia do crescimento org?nico, expandindo-se
na BHRP, a partir de centros urbanos existentes. O crescimento espont?neo ocorreu
por toda extens?o da Bacia, por?m a probabilidade de crescimento efetivo n?o deve
ultrapassar 21%. Verificou-se um crescimento de 68% para o per?odo entre 2014 e
2033, correspondendo a uma ?rea de expans?o de 1.778 ha. Para o ano de 2033, a
?rea da nascente do rio Pitimbu e proximidades da lagoa do Jiqui ter?o a
possibilidade efetiva de crescimento acima de 78%. Por fim, observou -se uma
tend?ncia de crescimento urbano ex?geno (de fora para dentro) na Bacia. Em
consequ?ncia desse crescimento, os recursos h?dricos tornar-se-?o cada vez mais
escassos
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:repositorio.ufrn.br:123456789/16009 |
| Date | 10 March 2014 |
| Creators | Ven?ncio, Salatiel da Rocha |
| Contributors | CPF:18446663872, http://lattes.cnpq.br/0476984348484601, Moreira, L?cio Fl?vio Ferreira, CPF:37994476449, http://lattes.cnpq.br/4599100661657180, Pereira, Roberto, CPF:44293231943, http://lattes.cnpq.br/1211936305777747, Righetto, Antonio Marozzi |
| Publisher | Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, Programa de P?s-gradua??o em Engenharia Sanit?ria, UFRN, BR, Saneamento Ambiental; Meio Ambiente; Recursos H?dricos e Hidr?ulica |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/masterThesis |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRN, instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, instacron:UFRN |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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