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Previous issue date: 2014-09-01 / Coordena??o de Aperfei?oamento de Pessoal de N?vel Superior - CAPES / Os efeitos das mudan?as clim?ticas sobre as sociedades humanas tornaram-se o
foco entre diversos pesquisadores. Entender os padr?es clim?ticos (circula??o da
atmosfera, precipita??o, temperatura) ? essencial para a previs?o de extremos
clim?ticos, mas o grande desafio ? analisar como esses eventos extremos atuam em
nossa sociedade e procurar meios de diminuir o seu impacto. Um conceito bastante
utilizando em ci?ncias humanas e sociais para compreender esses impactos e o processo
de adapta??o da sociedade ? o da vulnerabilidade. O objetivo deste trabalho ?
desenvolver e aplicar uma metodologia multi escala para avaliar e quantificar a
vulnerabilidade do Nordeste Brasileiro a extremos clim?ticos, desenvolvendo uma
metodologia que combina aspectos de vulnerabilidade a seca, bem como utilizar
indicadores socioecon?micos e clim?ticos para avaliar a exposi??o, capacidade de
adapta??o e a sensibilidade das microrregi?es geogr?ficas desta ?rea. A avalia??o da
susceptibilidade ou grau de exposi??o ao risco regional foi utilizando o SPI
(Standardized Precipitation Index) atrav?s do grau de magnitude de seca (MD), os
?ndices de chuva como o PCD (Precipitation Concentration Degree) e PCP
(Precipitation Concentration Period) ajudaram a caracterizar e climatologia regional.
Esses ?ndices apresentaram resultados satisfat?rios no estudo piloto do Rio Grande do
Norte para avaliar o grau de exposi??o ? seca. No que diz respeito a sensibilidade
agr?cola/agropecu?ria a t?cnica estat?stica multivariada an?lise fatorial apresentou
resultado aceit?vel para o modelo proposto usando dados referentes ao per?odo 1990-
1999 (P1). A aplica??o da an?lise de vulnerabilidade considerando tanto a capacidade
adaptativa, quanto a incapacidade adaptativa apresentaram resultados praticamente
similares com grande parte da regi?o com extrema vulnerabilidade localizada ao sul do
estado da Bahia assim como parte da regi?o semi?rida apresenta grau de vulnerabilidade
entre moderado e m?dio / The effects of climate change on human societies have become the focus of many
researchers for their research. Understanding weather patterns (circulation of the
atmosphere, precipitation, temperature) is essences for predicting extreme weather, but
analyze how these extreme events act in our society and look for ways to reduce the
impact caused by these events is the great challenge. Using a concept very in the
humanities and social sciences to understand these impacts and the adaptation of the
society's vulnerability. The objective of this work is to develop and apply a
methodology for evaluating fining scale and quantify the vulnerability of the Brazilian
Northeast to climatic extremes, developing a methodology that combines aspects of
vulnerability to drought, as well as socioeconomic and climatic indicators used to assess
exposure, ability to adaptation and the sensitivity of geographical microregions of the
region. The assessment of the susceptibility or degree of exposure to risk is the regional
using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) by the degree of magnitude dried
(MD), the rate of precipitation such as PCD (Precipitation Concentration Degree) and
PCP (Precipitation Period Concentration) helped characterize and regional climatology,
these indices showed satisfactory results in the pilot study of Rio Grande do Norte to
assess the degree of exposure to drought. Regarding sensitivity agricultural / livestock
multivariate statistical technique to factor analysis showed acceptable results for the
proposed model using data for the period 1990-1999 (P1). The application of the
analysis of vulnerability considering the adaptive capacity, as the adaptive disability
have almost similar results with much of the region's vulnerability to extreme south of
Bahia state as a part of the semiarid region has a degree of vulnerability among
moderate and mean
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:IBICT/oai:repositorio.ufrn.br:123456789/19562 |
| Date | 01 September 2014 |
| Creators | Silva, Bruce Kelly da N?brega |
| Contributors | 77231295720, http://lattes.cnpq.br/5291232352923880, Bezerra, Bergson Guedes, 99210703472, http://lattes.cnpq.br/1901216516407999, Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa dos, 03897595460, http://lattes.cnpq.br/8478223179930197, Silva, Claudio Moises Santos e, 66961513204, http://lattes.cnpq.br/1394248306018449, Marengo, Jos? Ant?nio, 25961583880, http://lattes.cnpq.br/5719239270509869, Spyrides, Maria Helena Constantino, 79203183434, http://lattes.cnpq.br/5023632543506327, L?cio, Paulo S?rgio |
| Publisher | Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, PROGRAMA DE P?S-GRADUA??O EM CI?NCIAS CLIM?TICAS, UFRN, Brasil |
| Source Sets | IBICT Brazilian ETDs |
| Language | Portuguese |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion, info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis |
| Source | reponame:Repositório Institucional da UFRN, instname:Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, instacron:UFRN |
| Rights | info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
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