This thesis seeks to advance our understanding of how quantitative models can be developed
and applied to marketing in complex dynamic environments characterized by
demand perishability. Specifically, it involves three essays on the dynamic shelf-space
management of movies. The problem is particularly complex for exhibitors - the retailers
in the motion picture supply chain - given the short life cycles of movies, their
perishable and uncertain demand, and complicated contracts. Our objective is to understand,
formalize, and develop optimal normative policies for such decision making
situations.
Essay 1 considers this problem from a theoretical standpoint by addressing the stochastic
aspects of movie replacement, which is analogous to equipment replacement in maintenance
theory. We formulate this problem as a Markov decision process model. A
scenario analysis reveals that the exhibitor is better off when shelf-space becomes scarcer
for the distributors. A smart exhibitor associates a cost with contract parameters and
bears it if it makes economic sense. The results underscore the importance of precise
information for making smart replacement decisions. The optimal policy under special
conditions resembles a control limit policy, which is easy to implement and compute.
Essay 2 applies the theoretical concepts developed in Essay 1 to a special case of
the movie replacement problem. The output of this essay is SilverScreener, which is a
decision support model for movie exhibitors. The model helps the exhibitors both select
(which) and schedule (when, how long) the movies. The model is readily implementable
and appears to lead to considerable improvement in profitability in different comparative
cases. The general nature of optimal policy emerges as: choose fewer "right" movies and
run them longer. The robustness of the results is shown through sensitivity analyses.
Essay 3 proposes a two-tier application of the SilverScreener model to show its effectiveness
as a managerial aid. The master plan helps the manager in bidding and planning
for movies before a season. The rolling horizon approach is useful for weekly replacement
decisions during the season. Our results show that SilverScreener can improve the
manager's profitability and promises to be an effective scheduling and planning tool.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:LACETR/oai:collectionscanada.gc.ca:BVAU.2429/9609 |
| Date | 11 1900 |
| Creators | Swami, Sanjeev |
| Source Sets | Library and Archives Canada ETDs Repository / Centre d'archives des thèses électroniques de Bibliothèque et Archives Canada |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Electronic Thesis or Dissertation |
| Relation | UBC Retrospective Theses Digitization Project [http://www.library.ubc.ca/archives/retro_theses/] |
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