The objective of this research was to determine the impact of climate change on
the Churchill River basin and perform analysis on uncertainty related to this
impact.
Three hydrological models were used to determine this impact and were
calibrated to approximately equivalent levels of efficiency. These include
WATFLOODTM, a semi-physically based, distributed model; HBV-EC, a semidistributed,
conceptual model; and HMETS, a lumped, conceptual model. These
models achieved Nash-Sutcliffe calibration values ranging from 0.51 to 0.71.
Climate change simulations indicated that the average of simulations predict a
small increase in flow for the 2050s and a slight decrease for the 2080s. Each
hydrological model predicted earlier freshets and a shift in timing of low flow
events.
Uncertainty analysis indicated that the chief contributor of uncertainty was the
selection of GCM followed by hydrological model with less significant sources of
uncertainty being parameterization of the hydrological model and selection of
emissions scenario.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:LACETR/oai:collectionscanada.gc.ca:MWU.1993/13692 |
| Date | 17 December 2012 |
| Creators | Bohrn, Steven |
| Contributors | Stadnyk, Tricia (Civil Engineering), Ali, Genevieve (Geological Sciences) Rasmussen, Peter (Civil Engineering) Koenig, Kristina (Manitoba Hydro) |
| Source Sets | Library and Archives Canada ETDs Repository / Centre d'archives des thèses électroniques de Bibliothèque et Archives Canada |
| Detected Language | English |
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