This study examines the impacts RTAs have had in the Asia-Pacific region regarding agricultural trade flows in order to make a prediction on how the proposed TPP agreement will affect the region. The estimation was carried out using a Gravity Model framework to observe the trade creation and trade diversion effects of five existing RTAs in the Asia-Pacific region. These agreements include NAFTA, AFTA, MERCOSUR, APEC, and CER. It is expected that RTAs were to have a positive effect for trade creation and a negative trade diversion effect. The gravity model included export flows of agricultural commodities (defined as food and live animals) between countries in the Asia- Pacific region to one another as the dependent variable. The right hand side of the equation included the traditional variables in a gravity model: GDP of exporter (importer), population of exporter (importer), and the distance between exporter and importer. It also consisted of additional variables to capture trade effects due to exchange rates, common language between trading partners, shared border, whether a country is landlocked, and mutual membership in a RTA as our independent variables. Of the five agreements examined AFTA, CER, and MERCOSUR resulted in significant trade creation effects while APEC and NAFTA showed signs of possible trade diversion. It was also concluded that GDP and population had the expected positive signs and that distance also had the expected sign (negative). Also, sharing a common border or language did have an effect on bilateral trade. These results suggest that the TPP should expect a trade creation effect with possible trade diversion effects as well.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:LSU/oai:etd.lsu.edu:etd-05272016-162513 |
| Date | 13 June 2016 |
| Creators | Worley, Chloe Michelle |
| Contributors | Salassi, Michael, Harrison, Wes, Kennedy, Lynn |
| Publisher | LSU |
| Source Sets | Louisiana State University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lsu.edu/docs/available/etd-05272016-162513/ |
| Rights | unrestricted, I hereby certify that, if appropriate, I have obtained and attached herein a written permission statement from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis, dissertation, or project report, allowing distribution as specified below. I certify that the version I submitted is the same as that approved by my advisory committee. I hereby grant to LSU or its agents the non-exclusive license to archive and make accessible, under the conditions specified below and in appropriate University policies, my thesis, dissertation, or project report in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of the thesis, dissertation or project report. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis, dissertation, or project report. |
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