Turkey moves towards integration with EU since 1963. The membership will
involve full liberalization of trade in agricultural products with EU. The impact
of liberalization depends on the path of agricultural policies in Turkey and the
EU. On the other hand, agricultural protection continues to be the most
controversial issue in global trade negotiations of World Trade Organization
(WTO). To evaluate the impacts of policy scenarios, an economic modeling
approach based on non-linear mathematical programming is appropriate. This
thesis analyzes the impacts of economic integration with the EU and the
potential effects of the application of a new WTO agreement in 2015 on
Turkish agriculture using an agricultural sector model. The basic approach is
Maximum Entropy based Positive Mathematical Programming of Heckelei and
Britz (1999). The model is based on a static optimization algorithm. Following
an economic integration with EU, the net export of crops declines and can not
tolerate the boom in net import of livestock products. Overall welfare affect is
small. Consumers benefit from declining prices. Common Agricultural Policy
(CAP) supports are determinative for the welfare of producers. WTO
simulation shows that a 15 percent reduction in Turkey&rsquo / s binding WTO tariff
commitments will increase net meat imports by USD 250 million.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:METU/oai:etd.lib.metu.edu.tr:http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12607740/index.pdf |
| Date | 01 October 2006 |
| Creators | Eruygur, Hakki Ozan |
| Contributors | Cakmak, Erol Hasan |
| Publisher | METU |
| Source Sets | Middle East Technical Univ. |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Ph.D. Thesis |
| Format | text/pdf |
| Rights | To liberate the content for public access |
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