This dissertation provides a quantitative analysis of the adaptability in forest management to future risks using existing data describing pine growth and management across a range of conditions in the southern U.S. Future risks include gradual climatic change, catastrophic events, price and yield risks. The adaptive options considered include rotation ages, thinning ages, thinning intensity and frequency, planting density and stand stocking. Using a bio-economic model approach, two empirical yield models based on U.S. Forest Service FIA data are integrated with an extended Faustmann and a Real Options optimization models respectively. Simulation results are obtained across risk categories and model types. Marginal and joint effects of risk are derived and comparisons between different integrated models are made. Forest managers' optimal decisions in response to risk are found to be sensitive to the set of adaptive options. The âstandardâ optimal rotation results do not necessarily hold if stand density control and thinning options are considered. The impacts of discrete catastrophic events on forest management adaptation and welfare are found to be more important than the gradual climate change impact. Gradual climate change within the range of Hadley 3 scenarios does not lead to significant changes in optimal rotation age, stand density or thinning ages but the change in forest rents may be significant. Depending on the impact of climate change on agriculture rent, we would expect more adaptations at the extensive margin (land use change) than the intensive margin (silvicultural intensity).
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NCSU/oai:NCSU:etd-05162008-114847 |
| Date | 22 August 2008 |
| Creators | Huang, Jin |
| Contributors | Sujit K. Ghosh, Barry K. Goodwin, Robert C. Abt, Brian. C. Murray, Subhrendu K. Pattanayak |
| Publisher | NCSU |
| Source Sets | North Carolina State University |
| Language | English |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://www.lib.ncsu.edu/theses/available/etd-05162008-114847/ |
| Rights | unrestricted, I hereby certify that, if appropriate, I have obtained and attached hereto a written permission statement from the owner(s) of each third party copyrighted matter to be included in my thesis, dis sertation, or project report, allowing distribution as specified below. I certify that the version I submitted is the same as that approved by my advisory committee. I hereby grant to NC State University or its agents the non-exclusive license to archive and make accessible, under the conditions specified below, my thesis, dissertation, or project report in whole or in part in all forms of media, now or hereafter known. I retain all other ownership rights to the copyright of the thesis, dissertation or project report. I also retain the right to use in future works (such as articles or books) all or part of this thesis, dissertation, or project report. |
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