In this study, the rainfall, yield distributed water and water sold¡K¡Ketc., 41 parameters from 1974 to 2006 were assessed the reasonable water rate adjustment. At first, 41 parameters were analyzed by SPSS software for descriptive statistiics, Pearson relational analyzing the data of input/output of correlation with a £^ value and screening of variables. Then, actual water price and designed water price will be the out variable. Try to find the optimal neural network structure and try to analyze and produce the water pricing structure.
The results show that the unit profit/loss from sales of Taiwan Water Corporation(TWC) for 33 years from 1974-2006, there are 11 years positive and 22 years negative, especially the past 20 years only on 1990, 2003, and 2005 are positive, the others are negative. TWC had not obtained the reasonable profit. Because since 1996, the range of return on water investment and return on equity are -0.98%-0.1% and 0.07%-0.52% lower than legal standard 5%, respectively.
Moreover, the rate of water price for the household consumption expenditure from 0.791% in 1982 decrease to 0.39% in 2006. To compare with the rational level for World Health Organization asserted 2%-4%. The water price of Taiwan is only 10%-20% of the level. Furthermore, the rate of water price for disposable income is from 0.606% in 1982 drops to 0.305% in 2006 and the rate for GDP is 0.18%-0.2% in the past 10 years.
In this study, the actual water price and designed water price were set as output parameter. The input variables divide to 29 and 19 units and hidden layer is set 1 or 2 layers. BPN(Back-Propagation Network) were through trial and error method to training, testing, and production the output. The training results show that 19 variables is better than 29 variables while we use actual water price and 2 hidden layers is better than 1 layer. However, when we use designed water price, 19 variables is still better than 29 variables, but 1 hidden layer is better than 2 hidden layers. The best production of water price of 1981, 1991, 1996, 2001, 2006 are 9.20, 12.62, 20.09, 23.07, 24.39 NT$, respectively. The values are close to designed water price 9.0, 12.6, 19.1, 22.2, 25.5 NT$. Whether we use 29 or 19 variables, 1 or 2 hidden layers, the training results indicated that the water price designed by household consumption expenditure is better than actual water price. Thus, the historical water price did not correspond to real operating costs for TWC in the past. In addition, the designed water price in this research can more correlated with the operating cost and efficiency of TWC.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0117108-093634 |
| Date | 17 January 2008 |
| Creators | Yen, Hsing-Yuan |
| Contributors | Horng-Jyh Chen, Jih-Hwa Wu, Shyh-Fang Kang |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | Cholon |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0117108-093634 |
| Rights | restricted, Copyright information available at source archive |
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