Abstract
Generally speaking, when dealing with some data, our analysis will be limited because of the given data was incompletely or hidden. And these kinds of errors in calculation will arrive at a statistics answer.
This thesis adopts an analysis based on the Gibbs sampling trying to recover the part of hidden data. Since we found out whether time series is unit root or not, the effects of the simulated series will be similar to the true value.
After observing the differences between the hidden data and the recovered data in unit root, we noticed that the hidden data has a bigger size and a weakened power over the recovered data.
Finally, as an example, we give the unsecured loans at the Japanese money market to prove our issues by analyzing the data from January, 1999 to July, 2004. Since we found out that the numerical value of loan is zero at several months these past several years.
In order to observe the Japanese money market, if we substitute the data of zero loan and use the traditional way to inspect unit root without taking model of average value into account, the result will be I(0). And if we simulate the hidden data with Gibbs sampling and substitute the data to inspect the Japanese money market without taking model of average value into account, the result will be I(0) also. But if we take model of average value into account, the of the Japanese Money Market will be I(1). And if we simulate the hidden data with Gibbs sampling and substitute the data to inspect the Japanese money market, the result will be I(I) also.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:NSYSU/oai:NSYSU:etd-0902105-004247 |
| Date | 02 September 2005 |
| Creators | Wu, Wei-Lun |
| Contributors | Ming-Jang WENG, Ching-nun Lee, Jeng-feng Lee |
| Publisher | NSYSU |
| Source Sets | NSYSU Electronic Thesis and Dissertation Archive |
| Language | Cholon |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | text |
| Format | application/pdf |
| Source | http://etd.lib.nsysu.edu.tw/ETD-db/ETD-search/view_etd?URN=etd-0902105-004247 |
| Rights | withheld, Copyright information available at source archive |
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