For many resource-based communities throughout Oregon the timber
industry plays an important role. In many of these areas, federal
land holdings comprise a large proportion of the area's land holdings.
Management decisions regarding resource use on the National Forest
lands can have a major influence on the stability of local timber industries
and on the communities of which they are a part.
Input-output analysis has been used extensively to evaluate the
importance of the timber industry to relatively small resource-dependent
communities. In the past, the conventional input-output demand
model has been used to assess the local impacts of changes in
the availability of public timber resources. However, an analysis
which interprets a change in primary resource supply as a change in
final demand for the processing industry's output may incorrectly
evaluate the impacts of shifts in primary resource supply on the
local economy.
The regional economic impacts resulting from a change in available
primary inputs can be estimated more accurately using a modified
approach to the conventional method of demand-pull analysis. Because
of the network of forward linkages present within the regional economy,
a change in primary inputs available to one sector may have a
direct or indirect affect on all other sectors of the local economy.
These supply-induced impacts on total sales can be calculated using
an input-output supply model. The resulting change in total sales
can be factored into two components--sales to local industries and
sales to final demand. Regional impacts resulting from the first
component can be calculated directly from the supply model. A modified
version of the input-output demand model can be used to estimate
the regional impacts associated with the supply-induced change in the
value of local industry exports.
This study identifies and evaluates the forward linkage structure
present in small resource-based economies. The conventional
input-output demand model is modified so that the local impacts of
changes in primary resource supply can be evaluated vis-a-vis these
structural relationships. A comparative economic impact analysis
of three eastern Oregon counties is conducted using the modified
input-output methodology. The results obtained using this procedure
are compared to results obtained using the conventional method of
analysis where changes in primary resource supply are extrapolated
to reflect changes in final demand.
In each county, estimates of regional impacts obtained using
the modified input-output methodology differed from those calculated
using the traditional form of analysis. The difference between
the estimates was most significant in Morrow County where a
relatively larger percentage of output in the wood products industry
is sold locally. The demand-induced impacts in each county were
considerably larger than the supply-induced changes. Although the
initial shock to the system is supply-induced, the backward linkage
structure plays a significant role in determining the overall impact
of the stimulus on regional and sectoral output.
The supply model is able to account for the direct and indirect
impacts on regional sales transactions caused by a change in available
primary inputs. The input-output demand model, by itself, is
unable to account for these transactions. Because the modified
input-output methodology provides a means by which changes in scarce
primary factor supply can be apportioned into supply and demand related
components, a better understanding of the regional economic
impacts associated with changes in the availability of public timber
can be obtained. / Graduation date: 1982
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:ORGSU/oai:ir.library.oregonstate.edu:1957/25953 |
| Date | 04 February 1982 |
| Creators | Eppley, Linda M. |
| Contributors | Obermiller, Frederick W. |
| Source Sets | Oregon State University |
| Language | en_US |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | Thesis/Dissertation |
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