碩士 / 淡江大學 / 交通管理學系 / 86 / The Advanced Drive Vehicle/Automatic Navigation & Control
Enroute System- Formosa(ADVANCE-F) is an application of the
hi-technology on the transportation field. Because of the
system still in development, the potential users have no
experience or have little knowledge about it; this study adopts
the stated preference method and discrete choice model to
predict the market share. However, from the related literature
it appears that the predictionis obviously higher by using SP
method. In order to obtain more precise prediction this study
introducesthe Delphi method, in addition, this study also adopts
the concept of diffusion of innovation in marketing field to
obtain more actual estimate closing to market demand.
The investigation shows the female is more preferred to use new
system. After market segmentation, the Binary Logist Model
predicts the new system''s market share is up to 64.22%, Delphi
Method predicts only 14.88% market share. However, from the
sales experience for optional equipment of auotomobile such as
GPS and ABS just introduced in the market, i.shows that about
10% to 20% people will include the optional equipment when the
price isapproximately at 1/3~1/4 of the car price. Furthermore,
according to thediffusion of innovation, the leading users will
be at proportion of 10%to 20% and will be increased to 70% to
80% at mature stage.Taking into account the extreme high cost
required for system development, this study recommends using
conservative estimate of 14.88% as predicted by experts at the
initial stage and 64.22% for the mature stage. In addition, the
factors that will affect the market share of the system are
systemsafety, price, network completion, usage fee, management,
and legislationissues.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/086TKU01119005 |
| Date | January 1998 |
| Creators | Cheng, Chia-Hui, 鄭佳慧 |
| Contributors | Luo Shiaw-Shyan, 羅孝賢 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 110 |
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