碩士 / 國立交通大學 / 交通運輸研究所 / 87 / The traditional transportation planning did not consider the change of external and internal and made only one forecast for future transportation development. Since, it can not control the future situations, the strategies of improving road traffic condition will not meet the requirements of future transportation demands. Strategic Planning has been developed in industry for several years, it is generally acknowledged very helpful to achieve the objectives. This study uses the concepts of strategic planning and tries to develop a framework of Transportation Strategic Planning.
This study first uses the Scenarios Analysis to make several scenarios and to forecast the probability of scenarios by Cross Impact Analysis, and then decides the key-scenarios through the probability of scenarios. Third, this study analyzes the present conditions and future trend of the system, and makes proper strategies by SWOT. After that, it structuralism the complicated problem to make different strategic alternatives for each key scenario by using AIDA, and then forecast the future traffic conditions for strategic alternatives. Finally, this study evaluate strategic alternatives by Entropy Weight Method to decide the priorities of strategic alternatives.
For the case study of KeeLung City. Nine different scenarios are created based on variables of population and port development. Four key scenarios are selected by Cross Impact Analysis. At the end, it is found that in different scenarios, the priority of strategic alternatives will be different. When the future development grows slowly, we should choose conservative strategies, which have lower cost and could improve road traffic immediately. When it grows rapidly, we should choose the positive strategies to fit the future developments of city traffic.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/087NCTU0118037 |
| Date | January 1999 |
| Creators | Yao-Ching Tu, 涂耀清 |
| Contributors | Cheng-Min Feng, 馮正民 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 120 |
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