碩士 / 國立中興大學 / 農業經濟學系 / 88 / Abstract
Among the factors caused difficulties in running the offshore fishery in Taiwan, water pollution and depletion of the fishery resource are two significant factors, while the instability of price is also an important factor. Under the trend of world trade liberalization, the domestic fishery market will be opened; our market will face competition from other countries and thus induces impact on the industry in Taiwan. Therefore, it is an urgent task for the government and the producers to accurately forecast the fish price. The main objectives of this paper are to forecast the fish prices in the wholesale markets by three different methods, namely, econometrics, time series and grey system theory, and to compare the estimated outcomes of three methods with one another.
The conclusions of this study are as follows.
1.In the empirical analysis of the econometric model, the results have shown that the supply of the Mackerel is influenced by the previous supply and the Mackerel and the Tuna are substitute goods.
2.In the model of the time series, it is found that the historical Mackerel prices have a long-time trend, but the seasonal change isn’t obvious.
3.In the model of the grey system theory, the Mackerel is found a better forecasting result than that of the Carangridae.
4.The comparison of these three forecasting methods has shown that the advantages of econometric model are accurate estimates and more implications , while the grey theory are simple and convenient. Through these methods, a useful information can thus be obtained and provide to the authorities and the producers.
| Identifer | oai:union.ndltd.org:TW/088NCHU0412012 |
| Date | January 2000 |
| Creators | Liang Yujin, 梁玉瑾 |
| Contributors | 蕭景楷 |
| Source Sets | National Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations in Taiwan |
| Language | zh-TW |
| Detected Language | English |
| Type | 學位論文 ; thesis |
| Format | 58 |
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